The recent victory of the song "Like a Bird" at the 15th Annual Guild of Music Supervisors Awards has sparked discussions about its potential to win the Best Original Song Oscar. This prison drama track, composed by Abraham Alexander, Brandon Marcel, and Adrian Quesada, has garnered significant attention. However, the correlation between GMS Awards and Oscars is not always straightforward. Over the past nine years, the guild's choice for best song has only aligned with the Academy Awards on three occasions. In several instances, songs recognized by the guild received nominations but ultimately did not win the coveted Oscar.

This year’s GMS nominees include a mix of tracks that have found varying degrees of success. Only two out of six GMS-nominated songs made it onto the Oscar shortlist: "Like a Bird" and Diane Warren’s "The Journey." The remaining four GMS contenders were left off the Oscar list. Conversely, some Oscar-nominated songs like "El Mal," "Mi Camino," and "Never Too Late" did not receive nods from the GMS Awards. Despite this discrepancy, industry experts are closely watching the trajectory of "El Mal," which has already secured Golden Globe and Critics' Choice Awards victories. Yet, its performance at other events suggests it may still face challenges in the final race.

The role of music supervisors in film often involves selecting and licensing existing tracks, making their award choices more inclined towards films heavy on song selections. This divergence highlights the distinct criteria used by the GMS and the Academy. While Wicked, a major budget film, won Best Music Supervision at the GMS, it currently ranks fifth in the Oscar predictions for Best Original Score. On the other hand, Daniel Blumberg’s score for The Brutalist, despite not winning at the GMS, has gained momentum with BAFTA and Society of Composers and Lyricists accolades, positioning him as a strong contender for the upcoming Oscars.

The journey of these songs through various award ceremonies underscores the unpredictable nature of the entertainment industry. Each accolade adds layers to the narrative, reminding us that while recognition can influence public perception, true artistic merit often transcends any single award. As we await the final verdict on March 2nd, the anticipation builds, celebrating the diverse talents and contributions within the world of film music.