Navigating the Evolving Landscape of Oscar Season: A Comprehensive Guide

The traditional fall festival trifecta of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto has long been the epicenter of the Oscar season, but the landscape is shifting. Recent Best Picture winners, such as Oppenheimer and Everything Everywhere All At Once, have defied the conventional wisdom by premiering outside the traditional fall festival window. Additionally, Cannes has become an increasingly significant player, launching numerous award contenders in recent years. As the industry navigates these changes, the upcoming New York, London, and AFI Film Festivals promise to provide further boosts for Oscar hopefuls in key voter-heavy regions.

Redefining the Oscar Season Playbook

Embracing the Unconventional

The conventional wisdom that the fall festivals are the prime launchpads for Oscar contenders is being challenged. Recent Best Picture winners, such as Oppenheimer and Everything Everywhere All At Once, have defied the traditional timeline by premiering in the summer and spring, respectively. This shift suggests that the industry is becoming more open to exploring alternative release strategies and recognizing the potential of films that don't adhere to the traditional fall festival circuit.The rise of Cannes as a significant player in the Oscar race is another testament to the evolving landscape. Films like Parasite, Once Upon a Time In Hollywood, Triangle of Sadness, and Drive My Car have all garnered Best Picture nominations after premiering at the prestigious French festival. This development challenges the previous notion that Cannes was a risky place to start an Oscar campaign, as the May timing was seen as too far removed from the prime campaigning period.

The Enduring Allure of the Fall Festivals

While the landscape is shifting, the fall festivals still offer a significant platform for Oscar hopefuls. The New York and London Film Festivals, starting in late September and early October, respectively, provide valuable exposure in voter-heavy regions. Additionally, the AFI Film Festival in Hollywood has moved up its showcase to late October, creating an opportunity for films like Robert Zemeckis' Here, starring Tom Hanks and Robin Wright, to generate buzz.The Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals, in particular, continue to be crucial stops on the Oscar circuit. These festivals provide a platform for a wide range of films, from Venice and Cannes imports to world premieres, to generate critical acclaim and industry buzz. As always, the Deadline team has been on the ground, attending and reviewing a multitude of films at these festivals, offering valuable insights into the emerging Oscar contenders.

Navigating the Crowded Field

The 2023 Oscar season is shaping up to be a particularly competitive one, with a diverse array of films vying for attention and accolades. From the gripping political drama I'm Still Here to the sexually charged Babygirl, featuring standout performances from Nicole Kidman and Antonio Banderas, the field is rich with potential contenders.Angelina Jolie's riveting portrayal of opera star Maria Callas in Maria has generated significant Best Actress buzz, while Adrien Brody and Guy Pearce's powerful performances in The Brutalist have also caught the attention of industry insiders. Daniel Craig's bold turn in the intriguing period drama Queer, distributed by A24, is another performance that could resonate with voters seeking to see actors in unexpected roles.The highly anticipated Joker sequel, Joker: Folie à Deux, starring Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga, has also generated considerable interest, though its critical reception has been more mixed. The film's exploration of societal issues and the nature of hero worship could strike a chord, but its success will ultimately be determined by how it resonates with audiences and voters.

Emerging Contenders from the Fall Festivals

The fall festivals have already showcased a wealth of potential Oscar contenders, each with its own unique strengths and narratives. From the Venice Film Festival, Pedro Almodóvar's The Room Next Door, featuring standout performances from Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton, has emerged as a strong contender, with both actresses likely to be campaigned for Lead Actress.The Brutalist, directed by Brady Corbet, has also generated significant buzz, with its powerful performances from Adrien Brody and Guy Pearce. Babygirl, starring Nicole Kidman and Antonio Banderas, has also caught the attention of industry insiders, with its provocative adult themes and Kidman's raw and stunning performance.At the Telluride Film Festival, September 5, a pulse-pounding account of the 1972 Munich Olympics massacre, has been hailed as a potential Oscar contender, with its top-notch performances and superb filmmaking. The Cannes import Emilia Pérez, a fantastic musical drama that won the Actress prize for its four stars in Cannes, has also emerged as a frontrunner, potentially providing Netflix with its best shot at finally winning the elusive Best Picture Oscar.Conclave, directed by Edward Berger, has also been well-received, with its gripping narrative and standout performances, particularly from Ralph Fiennes and Isabella Rossellini. The screen adaptation of August Wilson's The Piano Lesson, with its powerful performances and family affair behind the scenes, is another title that has generated significant Oscar buzz.

Comedies and Biopics: Expanding the Oscar Landscape

The fall festival season has also showcased a diverse array of films that challenge the traditional Oscar narrative. Jason Reitman's hilarious and heartfelt Saturday Night, a behind-the-scenes look at the lead-up to SNL's first episode, has the potential to break through as a rare comedy contender.The Lego-animated biopic of Pharrell Williams, Piece by Piece, combines documentary and animated elements to tell the story of the acclaimed musician, and could find its way into the Animated Feature and even Best Picture conversations.The inventive and odd apocalyptic musical The End, with its impressive production design and potential for original song recognition, is another title that defies the traditional Oscar mold. These films demonstrate the industry's growing openness to recognizing a wider range of cinematic achievements, beyond the typical dramatic fare.As the Oscar season continues to evolve, the industry must remain adaptable and open-minded, embracing the unconventional and recognizing the diverse array of films that have the potential to captivate audiences and industry voters alike. The upcoming New York, London, and AFI Film Festivals, as well as the continued success of the fall festival circuit, will undoubtedly shape the narrative and determine which films emerge as the true contenders for the coveted golden statuettes.