In 2023, the value of global music copyright witnessed a remarkable upswing, reaching an impressive $45.5 billion, which is a 11% increase from the previous year. This significant growth was highlighted by economist Will Page in the latest annual industry tally. Back in 2014, when Page initially calculated the value of various music copyright-related revenue streams, it was $25 billion, indicating a potential for doubling in value within a decade.

Record Labels: The Dominant Force

Record labels held the largest share in global music copyright in 2023, with a staggering $28.5 billion. This figure represents a 21% growth from 2022. Streaming played a crucial role, growing by 10.4% and becoming the major contributor to labels' revenue. Meanwhile, physical revenues performed even better, rising by 13.4%, and vinyl record sales saw an impressive 15.4% improvement. Page predicts that vinyl is on the verge of overtaking CD sales "soon." In Japan and across Asia, CD sales still remain high, but vinyl is selling more units at higher prices. He confidently states that by the next [summer] Olympics in 2028, it will easily be a $3 billion business.Collective Management Organizations: Shifting DynamicsCollective management organizations, which collect royalties on behalf of songwriters and publishers, had a revenue of $12.9 billion in 2023, showing an 11% increase from the previous year. A significant shift in economic influence is evident as live performances now pay more to CMOs than general licensing for public performances. Additionally, CMOs' digital collections exceeded revenues from broadcast and radio, reflecting the growing dominance of streaming over legacy media. A decade ago, digital accounted for just 5% of collections, while broadcast made up half.Publishers: Direct Licensing AdvantageIn another industry power shift, publishers collected more revenue from direct licensing compared to what they received from CMOs. These royalties combine large and stable incomes like sync and grand rights with fast-growing digital income. Publishers prefer direct licensing as it leads to quicker cash flow. For instance, a song that spikes in mid-March takes 201 days to pay the artist and 383 days to pay the songwriter. Moreover, a third of the songwriter revenue can disappear in transaction costs in the form of administration fees charged by various CMOs.Music Copyright During and After the PandemicWhile some parts of music copyright faced challenges during the pandemic, particularly public performance revenue, music has made a strong comeback since 2020 and has now overtaken the brick-and-mortar movie business. In 2023, music was 38% larger than cinema, which was a significant change from pre-pandemic 2019 when cinema was 33% bigger than music. Over the last four years, music grew by 44% while cinema shrank by 21%. It's important to note that Page's music copyright numbers include trade revenue going to rights holders and creators, while cinema figures in the head-to-head comparison represent consumer spending. According to one analyst's estimate, only half of cinema's $33.2 billion in box office revenues in 2023 goes to distribution.Globalization's Impact on MusicPage's report also examines the globalization of music and its impact on artists in less wealthy countries. North America and Europe, dominated by subscription revenue, accounted for 80% of the value of streaming growth but only 48% of the increase in streaming volume. In contrast, Latin America and Asia (excluding Japan), where streaming platforms get less revenue per listener, accounted for 12% of streaming's value growth compared to 46% of its streaming activity gains. For artists from these regions, fans in higher-revenue streaming markets can be highly lucrative. For example, Colombian artists like J. Balvin and Shakira generated nearly $100 million in streaming revenues in the US, which was six times more than in their home country. This "trade-boost" of $78 million was greater than the entire Colombian recorded music industry. Similarly, Mexican artists' streams in the US were worth $350 million in 2023, $200 million more than if they were from Mexico.ConclusionThe global music copyright landscape is constantly evolving, with various trends and shifts shaping the industry. From the dominance of record labels to the changing dynamics of CMOs and the impact of globalization, these factors are playing a crucial role in the future of music. As we move forward, it will be interesting to see how these trends continue to unfold and what new opportunities and challenges they bring.