Navigating the Hollywood Awards Maze with Insight

Best Picture

Now that Jacques Audiard’s musical “Emilia Pérez” has joined its similarly named compatriot on Netflix, it’s living up to its polarizing reputation. In “The Independent,” Clarisse Loughrey critiques Audiard for treating the trans experience as a metaphor. But Time’s Stephanie Zacharek sees it as a post-election balm. Everyone can agree that “Emilia Pérez” feels unique this year. Despite the social-media backlash, Academy voters might just get on board.

As the blockbuster sequel “Gladiator II”’s embargo lifted, critics hailed Ridley Scott’s film as “watchable” and a “likable diversion.” But to succeed without critics, it will have to mine the same masculine nostalgia as “Top Gun: Maverick.” Next weekend, it squares up against the still-embargoed “Wicked,” which looks set to surpass it in both box-office tracking and critical enthusiasm. Is there room for both in the Best Picture tent?

Best Director

Whatever you think about “Emilia Pérez,” it undoubtedly bears the authorial stamp of its 72-year-old French director, Jacques Audiard, behind “A Prophet” and “Rust and Bone.” Those who love the film attribute its appeal to Audiard’s uninhibited style. He “throws so much at you” that you don’t dare blink. This should appeal to a branch that loves razzle-dazzle maximalism.

India’s decision not to submit Payal Kapadia’s Cannes prizewinner sparked a debate around reforming the International Film category. Janus is opening “All We Imagine As Light” in New York and L.A. this weekend, hoping to crack this category. It’s not an impossible dream, but Kapadia’s delicate drama about nurses in Mumbai might face an uphill battle.

Best Actor

The original “Gladiator” made Russell Crowe a Best Actor winner. In his first big studio movie, Paul Mescal might have a tougher battle. “The Irish actor, usually intriguing, doesn’t hold the screen as much as he vanishes into its tumult,” says Alison Willmore. And his character is sidelined for much of the second half, as the plot’s political machinations ramp up outside.

Listen, I didn’t expect Jesse Eisenberg to stick around in my Best Actor predictions for this long either. But until Timothée Chalamet unveils his Bob Dylan voice, Eisenberg’s multi-hyphenate status gives him a fifth-place spot in this wide-open race almost by default.

Best Actress

Alongside Mikey Madison, Karla Sofia Gascón is this season’s major discovery. Playing the title character pre- and post-transition, she earns raves that outpace the film. “It’s Gascón whose bottomless charisma carries the movie,” says Dana Stevens. She keeps finding new ways to be Emilia Pérez, a character all about self-discovery.

I caught up with Marielle Heller’s “Nightbitch” this week. It’s a “flawed but interesting” project that Adams should be taking on. She spends most of her scenes acting opposite a toddler, throwing herself into the role of a mother who dreams she’s becoming a dog. But it’s only 45 minutes of movie in a 90-minute frame.

Best Supporting Actor

Like a merciful Roman emperor, critics are giving Denzel Washington’s “Gladiator” performance a big thumbs-up. “Washington radiates a showman’s delight, relishing his character’s deviousness,” says Tim Grierson. As he promoted the film this week, he also started musing about retiring from onscreen acting, sending a veiled message to the Academy.

As the only major male cast member of “Emilia Pérez,” Édgar Ramírez was left out at Cannes. Though his character plays a pivotal role in the musical’s final stretch, he doesn’t have many notes to play besides “hot and dangerous.”

Best Supporting Actress

“Emilia Pérez” lets Zoe Saldaña put her Center Stage training to good use. She kicks off the film with a spirited musical number and has another showstopping sequence. “Saldaña delivers thought in action, suggesting untapped power and purpose,” says Richard Brody. As the film’s audience surrogate, she belongs in Best Actress.

With Karla Sofia Gascón and Zoe Saldaña looking locked, the true test of “Emilia Pérez”’s strength will be whether Selena Gomez, with her Sally Field part, can manage a coattail nomination. “Gomez fully commits to the bit of this woman being gaslit,” says Lindsay Bahr. But she and the film crescendo into absurdity with little relief or catharsis.

Every week between now and January 17, when the Academy Awards nominations are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscar race. In our “Oscar Futures” column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up and who’s down.