Today, as is often the case, the New York Film Critics Circle is about to announce its annual awards. For the sixth time, I have the honor of casting my vote among them. There are years when the winners are predictable, like last year when Martin Scorsese's "Killers of the Flower Moon" was a clear masterpiece. But this year, it's a different story. The group is diverse, with Anora lovers and Brutalist die-hards. Some members are still reeling from seeing "Wicked: Part I". Predicting the Best Picture winner right now is like flipping a coin with some knowledge. No matter the outcome, one thing is certain - I won't be able to explain why.

Understanding the NYFCC's Voting Process

Unlike other critics' groups, the New York Film Critics Circle has a strict policy against revealing its voting details. The Los Angeles Film Critics Association includes runners-up and the National Society of Film Critics discloses numerical totals. But the NYFCC's announcement is winners-only, and members are forbidden from discussing second-place or the margin of victory. Breaking this rule can lead to suspension. This black-box approach creates a mystery, especially in an industry dedicated to predicting the Oscars. The NYFCC's Best Picture winner hasn't matched the Oscars' since 2011, like in 2020 when "Kelly Reichardt's First Cow" received no Oscar nominations. But narratives must be crafted, so even before the winners are known, there will be a flood of pieces analyzing what they mean.

The Inaccuracy of Outside Assumptions

Voting for awards has taught me that our outside assumptions about the process are often wrong. Journalists aren't used to being reported on, but sitting on the other side, watching others construct stories based on limited information, is instructive. It's hard to suppress the urge to correct them, but we have to remain silent. In the National Society of Film Critics votes, favorites can fade and unexpected choices emerge. One new member grew despondent during voting and never returned. It's a complex process that defies simple predictions.

Comparing the NYFCC to a Church Vote

Choosing a Best Picture winner is similar to selecting a new leader of a global church. Movie critics are not infallible, but the internal workings of both institutions share similarities. When talking to colleagues about a movie, we often come to the same conclusion about the voting process. In "Conclave", the liberal favorite makes a good showing but doesn't secure the win. A dark horse emerges from the back, surprising everyone. Just like in the NYFCC, petty bickering and sudden shifts of favor occur. External circumstances can change the game, and in the end, the winner is often unexpected.

The Unpredictability of Awards Voting

We don't know which movies will win when the NYFCC votes. Some will have their Oscar chances boosted, while others will be dashed. Some will win easily on the first ballot, while others will require rounds of back-and-forth. It's a rollercoaster of emotions and decisions. But if a certain movie emerges as the winner, we'll understand why. Just like in "Conclave", the final outcome is often a surprise. Awards voting is a complex and unpredictable process that keeps us on our toes.