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Leistikow's Early Insights on Iowa's Music City Bowl vs. Missouri
2024-12-08
After a long-awaited debut in 2022, the Iowa football team is once again set to grace the stage of Broadway Street. For the third time in five years, they have been selected for the TransPerfect Music City Bowl. However, their scheduled 2020 game against Missouri was canceled due to positive COVID-19 tests in the Tigers' program. Now, they will have a "rematch" between Iowa (8-4) and 19th-ranked Missouri (9-3) on December 30 at 1:30 p.m. CT at Nissan Stadium.

The Iowa Hawkeyes' Journey to Bowl Glory

Quarterback Curiosity Once Again

In 2022, Iowa's 21-0 win against Kentucky marked the only time Joey Labas took the quarterback snap. Labas started the game, completing 14 out of 24 passes for 139 yards and a touchdown to Luke Lachey with no turnovers. The other two touchdowns came from interception-return touchdowns by Xavier Nwankpa and Cooper DeJean. Labas was in the spotlight as starting quarterback Spencer Petras suffered a serious shoulder injury in the season finale against Nebraska, and backup Alex Padilla transferred. This left Iowa with only Labas and never-used Carson May as scholarship quarterbacks. Labas didn't play the following season despite backup Deacon Hill's struggles and then transferred to Central Michigan.This time, logic suggests that Brendan Sullivan will return as the primary quarterback in Nashville for his third start. But it's not a certainty. The chance of Cade McNamara returning was dashed when he announced he would enter the transfer portal last week. Sullivan severely injured his ankle on November 8 at UCLA and hasn't played since. Walk-on Jackson Stratton took over and led the team to back-to-back wins over Maryland and Nebraska. According to Ferentz, Sullivan should be fully recovered by December 30. However, Iowa may add a transfer-portal quarterback in the meantime. If they get a quarterback with a good chance of being the 2025 starter, Sullivan might enter the portal. In that case, Iowa would likely turn to Stratton again with Marco Lainez as a possible backup. It's also possible that Stratton, who is 21-for-35 for 219 yards with no interceptions in 10 quarters of action, could beat out Sullivan for the starting spot. There will almost certainly be some quarterback developments in the coming three weeks as the transfer portal officially opens on Monday.

Iowa's Running Backs Room Takes on a New Look

Without Kaleb Johnson, Iowa's first Big Ten running back of the year (since 2011), the focus of the running game shifts to where it started - Kamari Moulton. In the opener against Illinois State, Moulton was the No. 1 back while Johnson served a first-half suspension for a team violation. But Johnson took the lead in the second half (11 carries, 119 yards, two touchdowns) and never looked back, amassing 1,725 scrimmage yards and a school-record 23 touchdowns in a season. Moulton exploded for a career-high 114 yards on 12 carries on November 23 at Maryland, taking some of the workload off Johnson (35 carries, 164 yards). Expect a time-share with Jaziun Patterson in Nashville, giving Iowa a chance to mix in Terrell Washington Jr. or true freshmen like Brevin Doll or Xavier Williams. Moulton averages 5.4 yards per carry and is ready for his opportunity.

The Defense Can Deliver a Finishing Statement

Despite some struggles this season, the Hawkeyes have a chance to have a top-10 national defense again. As of Sunday morning, Iowa has climbed to No. 9 nationally in scoring defense, allowing only 17.1 points per game. They went 4-1 in their final five games, allowing 14, 10, 20, 13, and 10 points respectively. And that first 14 was from defensive and special-teams touchdowns by Northwestern. So, the defense has allowed only six offensive touchdowns in the last five games. Iowa ranked fourth in scoring defense in 2023 (14.8 points per game), second in 2022 (13.3), 13th in 2021 (19.2), sixth in 2020 (16.0), fifth in 2019 (14.0), and 11th in 2018 (17.8). Entering the bowl game, the Hawkeyes rank No. 16 in total defense at 313.6 yards per game. By the way, Missouri has the No. 22 total defense in college football (319.3 average).

90-Win Decade, Ferentz-Hayes Record Still in Play

It's not the College Football Playoff or a 10-win season, but Ferentz will focus on a nine-win season. From 2005 to 2014, Iowa managed just two nine-win seasons - in 2008 and 2009. But since 2015, they have won at least nine games five times, including a shortened COVID-19 pandemic season of 6-2. This would be a chance for six nine-win seasons in the last decade under Ferentz (2015, '18, '19, '21, '23), who can tie Woody Hayes' Big Ten career record of 205 coaching wins with a Nashville victory. Ferentz has a 204-123 record at Iowa (.624 winning percentage), with an 89-36 record (.712) in the past decade. A 90-win decade would be a significant achievement for the Hawkeye program.Johnson and cornerback Jermari Harris are Iowa's only expected opt-outs at this point. Missouri will be a challenging but beatable opponent. Opt-outs are always a curiosity in bowl games. Missouri standout wide receiver Luther Burden Jr. has already said he will skip the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft. The Tigers' only three losses this season were at Texas A&M (41-10), at Alabama (34-0), and at South Carolina (34-30). Four of their five Southeastern Conference wins were by a touchdown or less. Overall, the Hawkeyes should face a formidable but winnable challenge in their return to Nashville.Hawkeyes columnist Chad Leistikow has served for 30 years with The Des Moines Register and USA TODAY Sports Network. Chad is the 2023 INA Iowa Sports Columnist of the Year and NSMA Co-Sportswriter of the Year in Iowa. Join Chad's text-message group (free for subscribers) at HawkCentral.com/HawkeyesTexts. Follow @ChadLeistikow on X.
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